Bivalent mRNA vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 among older adults in Japan: a test-negative study from the VENUS study

Background: Bivalent COVID-19 vaccines have been implemented worldwide since the booster vaccination campaigns of autumn of 2022, but little is known about their effectiveness. Thus, this study holistically evaluated the effectiveness of bivalent vaccines against infection in older adults in Japan.

Methods: We adopted the test-negative design using COVID-19 test data of individuals, aged ≥ 65 years, residing in three municipalities in Japan, who underwent tests in medical institutions between October 1 and December 30, 2022. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate the odds of testing positive according to vaccination status. Vaccine effectiveness was defined as (1 - odds ratio) × 100%.

Results: A total of 3,908 positive and 16,090 negative results were included in the analyses. Receiving a bivalent dose in addition to ≥ 2 monovalent doses was 33.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.8, 44.3%) more effective than receiving no vaccination, and 18.2% (95% CI: 9.4, 26.0%) more effective than receiving ≥ 2 monovalent doses but not receiving a bivalent vaccination. In addition, the effectiveness peaked at 14-20 days after administration and then gradually declined over time. Furthermore, a bivalent booster dose provided 18.6% (95% CI: 9.9, 26.5%) additional protection among those vaccinated with ≥ 2 monovalent doses, in the absence of a previous infection history. However, we did not find sufficient evidence of effectiveness of bivalent vaccines among previously infected older adults.

Conclusions: Bivalent vaccines are effective against COVID-19 infections among older adults without a history of infection.